Trading expectancy calculator

Win rate alone does not tell you if a setup works. Combine it with the size of your wins and losses to see what each trade is worth on average.

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Win rate %Average win (R)Average loss (R)Risk per trade $ (optional)

Educational tool, not financial advice. Past results do not guarantee future ones; excludes fees.

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How the calculation works

Expectancy = win rate x average win - loss rate x average loss, measured in R, where 1R is the amount you risk per trade. A positive number means the setup made money over many trades; a negative one means it lost.

Example

Winning 40% of trades with an average win of 2R and an average loss of 1R gives 0.4 x 2 - 0.6 x 1 = +0.2R per trade, about +20R over 100 trades. Winning 30% at the same sizes gives -0.1R. Numbers are illustrative.

Where the numbers come from

Use your own trading journal: at least 30 to 50 logged trades of the same setup, each result written in R. A handful of trades says very little, and past results do not guarantee future ones. This is educational, not financial advice.

Questions

What is a good trading expectancy?

Anything reliably above zero after fees means the setup has an edge. Many traders treat +0.1R to +0.3R per trade as solid; a very high number from few trades is usually luck.

Why measure in R instead of dollars?

R compares trades of different sizes on one scale. If you risk $10 per trade, +0.2R is about $2 per trade on average.

Can a low win rate be profitable?

Yes, if the wins are big enough. At an average win of 3R and loss of 1R, a 25% win rate breaks even and anything above it is positive.

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